Canada 加拿大
压舱石市场 — 大门对住宅焊死，对上市与商业敞开
加拿大是全站组合的稳定压舱石，不是收益发动机：诚实的现金流数字在中个位数，全部有文件可查，且以日流动性的上市形态供应。国家把投机的大门刻意焊死（联邦购房禁令、省市 25–35% 的买家税、空置税），却对商业/工业资产与上市 REIT 单位完全敞开——正确的加拿大姿势是：持有上市房东、大票面才碰工业直投、不要碰房子。加元与 25% 的非居民预扣是这份稳定的价格；加拿大的任何东西都不换居留权。请注意禁令的日期结构：现行法下禁令 2027-01-01 到期，2026 年预算提案延至 2029 并豁免新建住宅——提案尚未立法，本站按现行法表述并随立法更新。
Four grades
Identity & tax (in one line)
Identity and tax: no passive investment-for-residence channel exists (the federal investor programme was terminated in 2014; the Start-up Visa is paused from 30 Jun 2026; the Quebec investor programme requires French at B2, a C$1M investment and a C$200,000 contribution, and its 2026 intake status conflicts across sources — MIFI governs). Part XIII withholding is 25%; a s.216 net-basis rental election is available; the UHT is abolished from 2025; the capital-gains inclusion rate stays at 50%. Foreign-buyer taxes target residential only (Ontario 25% plus Toronto 10%; BC 20% plus a speculation and vacancy tax of 3% rising to 4%).
This section is general information only — not immigration or tax advice. Program rules change frequently; before acting, rely on the official texts and a licensed adviser.
Key metrics
Why this country
Canada's value is predictability: a G7 rule-of-law market where distributions are filed, payout ratios sit near sixty percent (the cash is not hollowed out), and the line between residential and commercial is drawn by statute. Returns are mid-table (listed landlords at about 4.2-4.9% gross distributions, industrial cap rates of 4.5-6.0%) but every point of them is checkable — in this site's portfolio it sits with New Zealand among the institutional ballast, answering 'where can money be parked without worry' rather than 'where is the most money made'. Its attitude to foreigners is this survey's most honest two-face: the residential door is welded shut and heavily taxed, while the commercial and listed doors stand open without approval. To understand Canada is to understand this legislative generation's language for sorting capital by kind.
Entry routes
Listed route: TSX-listed REITs (entry No. 61) through a broker; foreigners hold units without restriction and do not touch the purchase ban (the trust owns the buildings, the investor owns units).
Commercial direct: GTA/Greater Vancouver industrial (entry No. 62) — pure commercial assets sit outside the ban, at larger tickets (C$1M+) with lawyer and tax handling case by case (s.116 mechanics; the NRST does not touch pure industrial).
Residential route: effectively closed — the federal ban covers residential buildings of three units or fewer in metropolitan areas (entry No. 63 takes it apart); buildings of 4+ units, non-metropolitan areas and (under the proposal) new construction are the only surviving crack forms, verified case by case.
Risks
- Two-way legislative risk (dated): under current law the ban repeals on 1 Jan 2027; Budget 2026 (presented 5 Nov 2026) proposes extending it to 1 Jan 2029 while exempting new residential construction — the bill has not been tabled. Any residential decision before the bill lands is priced against an unsettled sky.
- The rental cycle: GTA industrial asking rents are already down 3.1% y/y with availability back to 5.0% from pandemic lows; residential rents are cooling (a supply wave plus slower migrant inflows) — Canada's 'stable' does not mean 'rising'.
- The Canadian dollar and withholding: the 25% Part XIII withholding and the ROC composition (annual T3 characterisation) are two filters on in-hand cash — non-residents must price on the in-hand basis before buying, not after.
Ranked opportunities in this country
| Overall rank | Opportunity | Net return (primary metric) | Our take |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | Canadian listed REITs: payouts held up by payout ratios of only about 60% — slow, but every cent is checkable | 4.2–4.9% | Do, with conditions |
| 62 | GTA & Greater Vancouver industrial, direct: outside the ban, inside the data — institutional caps of 4.5–6.0%, and no price table for small units | 4.5–6% | Do, with conditions |
| 63 | Toronto & Vancouver residential buy-to-let, taken apart: the law closes one door, the tax closes another — both fail | 4.99–6.16% |